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AIS-LLM: A Unified Framework for Maritime Trajectory Prediction, Anomaly Detection, and Collision Risk Assessment with Explainable Forecasting

Park, Hyobin, Jung, Jinwook, Seo, Minseok, Choi, Hyunsoo, Cho, Deukjae, Park, Sekil, Choi, Dong-Geol

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increase in maritime traffic and the mandatory implementation of the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the importance and diversity of maritime traffic analysis tasks based on AIS data, such as vessel trajectory prediction, anomaly detection, and collision risk assessment, is rapidly growing. However, existing approaches tend to address these tasks individually, making it difficult to holistically consider complex maritime situations. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework, AIS-LLM, which integrates time-series AIS data with a large language model (LLM). AIS-LLM consists of a Time-Series Encoder for processing AIS sequences, an LLM-based Prompt Encoder, a Cross-Modality Alignment Module for semantic alignment between time-series data and textual prompts, and an LLM-based Multi-Task Decoder. This architecture enables the simultaneous execution of three key tasks: trajectory prediction, anomaly detection, and risk assessment of vessel collisions within a single end-to-end system. Experimental results demonstrate that AIS-LLM outperforms existing methods across individual tasks, validating its effectiveness. Furthermore, by integratively analyzing task outputs to generate situation summaries and briefings, AIS-LLM presents the potential for more intelligent and efficient maritime traffic management.


Short-Term Power Demand Forecasting for Diverse Consumer Types to Enhance Grid Planning and Synchronisation

Diaz-Iglesias, Asier, Belaunzaran, Xabier, Florez-Tapia, Ane M.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring grid stability in the transition to renewable energy sources requires accurate power demand forecasting. This study addresses the need for precise forecasting by differentiating among industrial, commercial, and residential consumers through customer clusterisation, tailoring the forecasting models to capture the unique consumption patterns of each group. A feature selection process is done for each consumer type including temporal, socio-economic, and weather-related data obtained from the Copernicus Earth Observation (EO) program. A variety of AI and machine learning algorithms for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) and Very Short-Term Load Forecasting (VSTLF) are explored and compared, determining the most effective approaches. With all that, the main contribution of this work are the new forecasting approaches proposed, which have demonstrated superior performance compared to simpler models, both for STLF and VSTLF, highlighting the importance of customized forecasting strategies for different consumer groups and demonstrating the impact of incorporating detailed weather data on forecasting accuracy. These advancements contribute to more reliable power demand predictions, thereby supporting grid stability.


AIS Data-Driven Maritime Monitoring Based on Transformer: A Comprehensive Review

Xie, Zhiye, Tu, Enmei, Fu, Xianping, Yuan, Guoliang, Han, Yi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increasing demands for safety, efficiency, and sustainability in global shipping, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays an increasingly important role in maritime monitoring. AIS data contains spatial-temporal variation patterns of vessels that hold significant research value in the marine domain. However, due to its massive scale, the full potential of AIS data has long remained untapped. With its powerful sequence modeling capabilities, particularly its ability to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal dynamics, the Transformer model has emerged as an effective tool for processing AIS data. Therefore, this paper reviews the research on Transformer-based AIS data-driven maritime monitoring, providing a comprehensive overview of the current applications of Transformer models in the marine field. The focus is on Transformer-based trajectory prediction methods, behavior detection, and prediction techniques. Additionally, this paper collects and organizes publicly available AIS datasets from the reviewed papers, performing data filtering, cleaning, and statistical analysis. The statistical results reveal the operational characteristics of different vessel types, providing data support for further research on maritime monitoring tasks. Finally, we offer valuable suggestions for future research, identifying two promising research directions. Datasets are available at https://github.com/eyesofworld/Maritime-Monitoring.


Memorization or Interpolation ? Detecting LLM Memorization through Input Perturbation Analysis

Djiré, Albérick Euraste, Kaboré, Abdoul Kader, Barr, Earl T., Klein, Jacques, Bissyandé, Tegawendé F.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance through training on massive datasets, they can exhibit concerning behaviors such as verbatim reproduction of training data rather than true generalization. This memorization phenomenon raises significant concerns about data privacy, intellectual property rights, and the reliability of model evaluations. This paper introduces PEARL, a novel approach for detecting memorization in LLMs. PEARL assesses how sensitive an LLM's performance is to input perturbations, enabling memorization detection without requiring access to the model's internals. We investigate how input perturbations affect the consistency of outputs, enabling us to distinguish between true generalization and memorization. Our findings, following extensive experiments on the Pythia open model, provide a robust framework for identifying when the model simply regurgitates learned information. Applied on the GPT 4o models, the PEARL framework not only identified cases of memorization of classic texts from the Bible or common code from HumanEval but also demonstrated that it can provide supporting evidence that some data, such as from the New York Times news articles, were likely part of the training data of a given model.


FLP-XR: Future Location Prediction on Extreme Scale Maritime Data in Real-time

Theodoropoulos, George S., Patakis, Andreas, Tritsarolis, Andreas, Theodoridis, Yannis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Movements of maritime vessels are inherently complex and challenging to model due to the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of maritime operations. Even within structured maritime environments, such as shipping lanes and port approaches, where vessels adhere to navigational rules and predefined sea routes, uncovering underlying patterns is far from trivial. The necessity for accurate modeling of the mobility of maritime vessels arises from the numerous applications it serves, including risk assessment for collision avoidance, optimization of shipping routes, and efficient port management. This paper introduces FLP-XR, a model that leverages maritime mobility data to construct a robust framework that offers precise predictions while ensuring extremely fast training and inference capabilities. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach through an extensive experimental study using three real-world AIS datasets. According to the experimental results, FLP-XR outperforms the current state-of-the-art in many cases, whereas it performs 2-3 orders of magnitude faster in terms of training and inference.


Improving sub-seasonal wind-speed forecasts in Europe with a non-linear model

Tian, Ganglin, Coz, Camille Le, Charantonis, Anastase Alexandre, Tantet, Alexis, Goutham, Naveen, Plougonven, Riwal

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sub-seasonal wind speed forecasts provide valuable guidance for wind power system planning and operations, yet the forecasting skills of surface winds decrease sharply after two weeks. However, large-scale variables exhibit greater predictability on this time scale. This study explores the potential of leveraging non-linear relationships between 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and surface wind speed to improve subs-seasonal wind speed forecasting skills in Europe. Our proposed framework uses a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) or a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to regress surface wind speed from Z500. Evaluations on ERA5 reanalysis indicate that the CNN performs better due to their non-linearity. Applying these models to sub-seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, various verification metrics demonstrate the advantages of non-linearity. Yet, this is partly explained by the fact that these statistical models are under-dispersive since they explain only a fraction of the target variable variance. Introducing stochastic perturbations to represent the stochasticity of the unexplained part from the signal helps compensate for this issue. Results show that the perturbed CNN performs better than the perturbed MLR only in the first weeks, while the perturbed MLR's performance converges towards that of the perturbed CNN after two weeks. The study finds that introducing stochastic perturbations can address the issue of insufficient spread in these statistical models, with improvements from the non-linearity varying with the lead time of the forecasts.